主题 环境
日期 2022年6月22日
媒体接触

研究发现,融化的北极冰可能会改变国际航运路线

Melting ice in the Arctic Ocean could yield new 贸易路线 in international waters, reducing the shipping industry’s carbon footprint and weakening Russia’s control over 贸易路线 through the Arctic, 一项研究发现.

普罗维登斯,R.I. [永信贵宾会]-随着气候变化,世界海洋正在迅速变暖, 北冰洋的未来看起来很严峻. Climate models show that parts of the Arctic that were once covered in ice year-round are warming so quickly that they will be reliably ice-free for months on end in as few as two decades. 的 Arctic’s changing climate will endanger countless species that thrive in sub-zero temperatures, 科学家们说.

北极冰层融化的另一个重要后果? 更短的可能性, more eco-friendly maritime 贸易路线 that bypass the Russian-controlled Northern Sea Route.

在一项新的研究中, a pair of climate scientists at 永信贵宾会 worked with a legal scholar at the University of Maine School of Law to predict how Arctic Ocean ice melt could affect the regulation of shipping routes over the next few decades. 他们预计到2065年, the Arctic’s navigability will increase so greatly that it could yield new 贸易路线 in international waters — not only reducing the shipping industry’s carbon footprint but also weakening Russia’s control over trade in the Arctic.

这项研究于6月20日周一发表该研究发表在《永信贵宾会》上.

他说:“在任何情况下,北极冰川融化都不是好消息,阿曼达·林奇说。, 该研究的主要作者和地球教授, 环境和行星科学. “但不幸的是,冰川已经在退缩, 这些路线正在开放, 永信贵宾会需要开始批判性地思考法律问题, 环境和地缘政治影响.” 

林奇, 研究北极气候变化近30年的科学家, 这是第一步, 她和李雪珂一起工作, 博士后研究助理 永信贵宾会环境与社会研究所, to model four navigation scenarios based on four likely outcomes of global actions to halt climate change in the coming years. 的ir projections showed that unless global leaders successfully constrain warming to 1.在接下来的43年里达到5摄氏度, climate change will likely open up several new routes through international waters by the middle of this century.

据查尔斯·诺奇说,他是 海洋和沿海法中心 他是永信贵宾会访问学者 沃森国际与公共事务研究所, and one of the study’s co-authors — those changes could have major implications for world trade and global politics.

诺奇解释说,自1982年以来, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea has given Arctic coastal states enhanced authority over primary shipping routes. 《永信贵宾会》第234条规定,以“预防”的名义, 减少和控制船舶对海洋的污染,” countries whose coastlines are near Arctic shipping routes have the ability to regulate the route’s maritime traffic, 只要该地区在一年中大部分时间都被冰雪覆盖. 

诺奇说了几十年, 俄罗斯利用宪法第234条来谋求自身的经济和地缘政治利益. One Russian law requires all vessels passing through the Northern Sea Route to be piloted by Russians. 的 country also requires that passing vessels pay tolls and provide advance notice of their plans to use the route. 的 heavy regulation is one among many reasons why major shipping companies often bypass the route’s heavy regulations and high costs and instead use the Suez and Panama canals — longer, 但是更便宜更容易, 贸易路线. 

但随着俄罗斯北部海岸附近的冰开始融化, Norchi说, 该国对北冰洋航运的控制也会受到影响. 

“俄罗斯将, 我相信, 继续援引第234条, 他们会试图用他们的力量来支持吗,”Norchi说. 但他们将受到国际社会的挑战, because Article 234 will cease to be applicable if there's no ice covered-area for most of the year. 不仅如此, 但是随着冰的融化, shipping will move out of Russian territorial waters and into international waters. 如果发生这种情况, 俄罗斯也无能为力, 因为其结果是由气候变化和航运经济驱动的.” 

根据林奇, previous studies have shown that Arctic routes are 30% to 50% shorter than the Suez Canal and Panama Canal routes, 预计运输时间将减少14至20天. That means that if international Arctic waters warm enough to open up new pathways, shipping companies could reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by about 24% while also saving money and time. 

“的se potential new Arctic routes are a useful thing to consider when you recall the moment when the Ever Given ship was stranded in the Suez Canal, 封锁一条重要航线达数周之久,”林奇说. “Diversifying 贸易路线 — especially considering new routes that can’t be blocked, because they’re not canals — gives the global shipping infrastructure a lot more resiliency.”

最好现在就问永信贵宾会未来航运的问题, 林奇说, 而不是以后, 考虑到建立国际法需要很长时间. (上下文, 她说, it took 10 years for world governments to negotiate the Convention on the Law of the Sea.) 林奇 hopes that kicking off the conversation on the Arctic’s trade future with well-researched scholarship might help world leaders make informed decisions about protecting the Earth’s climate from future harm.

“Flagging these coming changes now could help prevent them from emerging as a crisis that has to be resolved rapidly, 几乎没有什么好结果,”林奇说. “To actually craft international agreements with some forethought and deliberation is certainly a better way to go.”

标签 ib 研究